My Take… As I Leave For The Iowa Caucuses

by Lanny Davis – 1/31/20

Here are three myths about the Iowa caucuses that I believe the “Conventional Wisdom Media” have propagated and that need to be corrected.

Myth #1: There are progressive and moderate “lanes” inhabited by different Democratic candidates.

Nonsense.

All five Democratic candidates are pro-choice, pro-reasonable gun control, pro-ObamaCare and universal health care, pro-increasing taxes on the wealthy, pro-environment, pro-strict measures to reduce global warming and pro/regulation of excessive drug prices, etc. Is there any doubt these are progressive positions? Seriously?

Some candidates support “Medicare for All” — i.e., Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) – and some support ObamaCare plus a public insurance option — i.e., former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) Does that make the latter less “progressive”? Hardly.

Myth #2: If any candidate wins Iowa and New Hampshire, or Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, the race is virtually over.

That is silly. It ignores the math to come – and the impact of the Democratic Party’s proportional representation rule.

If one candidate wins the first three states, even if he or she wins by 10 percent in each of the three (extremely unlikely), that means out of a total of 101 delegates, that candidate comes out, under proportional representation, with a margin of about +10 delegates. Then comes South Carolina on Feb. 29 with 51 delegates. Biden is now leading there by +20 percent in most polls. If that lead holds, he gains about +10 – i.e., back to even with the winner of the first three, or even ahead.

Then comes Super Tuesday – with a total 1,357 delegates up for grabs. Forty percent of these are in southern states, where a heavy percentage of the vote is African American. This again gives Biden an advantage.

On the other hand, California has 415 delegates alone – more than four times the total of the first three states. But with proportional representation, even a margin of 10 percent by one candidate in California – again unlikely – results in only a +40-delegate edge. And so, on we go, perhaps all the way to the convention with small gains and losses by the winners and losers of the primaries and caucuses.

So, get ready for a long campaign before anyone is near the magic number of 1,990 delegates out of 3,979 pledged delegates to win the nomination. Which leads me to the last major myth:

Myth #3: Having so many Democrats fighting it out for the entire campaign ensures a divided Democratic Party and will help re-elect President Donald Trump.

This is one of the greatest myths of all. Of course, the media wants a race and naturally plays up any sign of controversy among Dems. It helps ratings to keep things hot and divided and focused on personality squabbles.

But is there really any doubt that, at the moment the Democratic presidential and vice presidential nominees are on the podium in Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum on July 16, in prime time, with their hands locked together, held on high — is there any doubt that the Democratic Party will then be, and remain, perhaps more united than ever before in its history – united in the virtually 100 percent commitment to defeat Trump?

Come on, pundits. Prepare to be disappointed, despite all your dire predictions about a “divided” Democratic Party.

Won’t happen. It’s all about beating Trump.

So, here is my take as I get ready to leave for Iowa:

I like all five progressive candidates, all of whom I believe can beat Trump. (Just look at the general election polls in RealClearPolitics and you will see that Trump is behind most Democratic candidates, especially Biden and Sanders, in most of the battleground states. If Trump can’t get over 45 percent in job approval so far in any month of his presidency, despite the hot economy, he and his supporters must be worried.)

As for the current top Democratic candidates, here is my quick take:

Biden is experienced, decent and comfortable and leads Trump in most battleground state polls. Sanders arouses excitement and passion and also has demonstrated his ability in many polls to defeat Trump. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are sensible, solid and likely to unite rather than divide. And while Warren has slipped because of careless numbers on her Medicare for All cost calculations, she should be credited for the most specificity on her “plans” to solve problems.

Any one of them can win Iowa, although Biden’s strength vs. Trump, and Bernie’s passion and evidence of appeal to some Trump voters, makes the two of them the going-in favorites … as of now.

But don’t forget former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg. Too bad he didn’t want to work hard to win retail votes in the early states. But he certainly deserves gratitude from all Democrats for spending so much TV money reminding Democrats of the need, indeed the historic urgency, of not allowing Donald Trump a second term.

Stay tuned.

To read the column on The Hill, click here

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Davis served as special counsel to President Bill Clinton (1996-98). He is co-founder of the law firm of Davis Goldberg & Galper and the strategic media and crisis management firm Trident DMG. He authored “Crisis Tales: Five Rules for Coping with Crises in Business, Politics and Life (Scribner 2018). He is being hosted in Iowa by former Iowa Attorney General Bonnie Campbell. Davis can be followed on Twitter @LannyDavis